Monday, April 18, 2011

Religions and Representation

Existing studies suggest that there may be a link between religions and politics (see Here). And while Singapore advocates a separation between the state and religions, the separation is a tenuous one (see Here). Hence, it is of interest that we study the issue of political representation (see Here) and religions in the context of the Singapore parliament.

For a start, the religions of the members of parliament (non-inclusive of non-constituency member [NCMP], and nominated members of parliaments [NMP]) are tabulated from their CVs listed on the Parliament of Singapore's website (http://www.parliament.gov.sg/list-of-current-mps). There are a total of 82 members of parliament, and the breakdown of their religions is as follow:It is important to note that a large percentage of them (26%) did not specify their religious affiliation. For those who did specify, they are then further grouped into the following categories - Buddhism/Taoism, Christianity, Islam, Hinduism, Other Religions, No Religion. These categories are the same as the ones used in Census 2010. The Free-Thinkers and those who listed their religion as "NIL" are assumed to have on religion. This is so since "nil" is defined as "nothing, zero" according to the Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary (see http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/nil).
After excluding those who did not specify their religions, a chi-square distribution test is then calculated to test the goodness of fit between the observed distribution of religions among the members of parliaments, and the actual distribution of religions among the resident population according to Census 2010 (See below).

(Source: http://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/popn/c2010sr1/cop2010sr1.pdf)
The results are as follow:
What it shows is that there is a significant difference (X2 (5)= 31.152, P < .01) between the observed distribution of religions among the members of parliament, and the actual distribution of religions among the resident population.

Take particular note of the residual, which is the difference between the observed value and the expected value. It is therefore apparent that the Buddhists/ Taoists are underrepresented, while the Christians are overrepresented.

A few limitations must be noted however. The first limitation lies in the fact that a large percentage of the members of parliament does not specify their religion. As such, it may be that the distribution of religion among the members of parliament may fit the actual distribution once we have the full data set.

Second, those who listed their religion as "nil" and as "free-thinker" are assumed to have no religion. This assumption might not reflect the reality.

Thirdly, the use of the census 2010 statistics may not be so appropriate given that the current parliament was voted in in 2006. The distribution of religions among the resident population then may be different. The decision to use the census 2010 statistics is one of convenience.

Lastly, given the sensitive nature of topics on religions in Singapore, it must be noted that the members of parliament are selected based on a meritocratic system without any regard for their religious affiliation. Furthermore, the members of parliament are voted in by the public, and should therefore be seen as having the mandate of the public to represent them. Also, this statistical representation does not say anything about their decision-making processes with regards to the state's affairs.

P/s: It should also be noted that the current parliament may be dissolved soon, in anticipation of the upcoming election. Hence, the above statistics will be out-dated in a matter of weeks or, at the most, months.

Edited: The current parliament is dissolved, which means that the above statistics are already out-dated. Future research recommended.

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