Didn't read today's newspaper until now. And I don't need to go beyond the cover page of today's Today to reach a facepalm situation.
The article Coming to the end of the long route: Existing cross-country bus routes to be reviewed, no new ones will be added by Teo Xuanwei quoted Second Transport Minister Lim Hwee Hua saying "there is 'really strong' correlation between unreliable bus arrival timings and long bus service routes" and that "the longer the service, the more there will be uncertainty because of traffic conditions along the way."
First thing first, correlation does not equal to causation. Statistics 101 would have taught her so. Or maybe she hasn't any stats background.
And removing long bus service routes to improve reliability is like me removing my door to prevent it from slamming. Surely, the increase presence of doors correlates with increase number of door slams. But no, removing the door will not remove the cause of door slamming.
If that's not enough, she managed to slap herself by pointing out that it is not longer service route per se but the traffic conditions along the way that's impacting the reliability.
Well done Minister. Well done. Now that you've had the cause figured out, maybe you want to rethink how to solve the problem.
Monday, March 29, 2010
Am I getting my money worth?
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